Democratic Elections in Africa: Popular Sovereignty, Manipulation, Violence and Jurisprudence - A Six-Country Comparative Study with Nigeria as the Primary Case

Abstract

This article examines how electoral administration, violence and judicial intervention shape popular sovereignty in Africa, with particular emphasis on Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election. Using a structured comparative approach, it analyses six elections held in Kenya (2022), Nigeria (2023), Zimbabwe (2023), Senegal (2024), South Africa (2024) and Ghana (2024). The study draws on official election results, election observer reports, Afrobarometer surveys, court judgments and official statements on electoral disputes, interpreted through popular sovereignty and principal–agent theory. The findings reveal three major patterns. First, weaknesses in electoral transparency and results management undermined public confidence, particularly in Nigeria, where the implementation of promised electronic results transmission fell short of expectations. Second, fear of intimidation and electoral violence constrained citizens’ participation, with reported concerns evident in both Nigeria and Kenya. Third, judicial intervention played a dual role in electoral governance: it protected constitutional democracy in Senegal but also shifted the resolution of numerous electoral disputes in Nigeria from polling units to judicial tribunals. In contrast, Ghana and South Africa illustrate how political concessions and coalition arrangements can support peaceful electoral transitions. The article concludes that Nigeria’s electoral governance requires stronger institutional independence, transparent and auditable results transmission, effective prosecution of electoral offences, greater reliance on polling-unit evidence in electoral litigation and safeguards against artificial intelligence-enabled disinformation. It proposes a Five-Pillar Model to strengthen popular sovereignty and advance Sustainable Development Goals 16.3, 16.6, 16.7 and 16.10.