Assessment of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Facilities in Kogi State: Socioeconomic Gains and Drawbacks

Abstract

Nigeria’s vast natural gas reserves, estimated at over 209 trillion cubic feet, represent a largely untapped engine for economic and industrial growth. Despite this abundance, the nation remains tethered to a volatile, import-dependent petroleum market that depletes foreign exchange and exposes citizens to frequent fuel shortages. This study evaluates the transition to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as a strategic alternative, focusing on Kogi State as a critical development hub. Positioned along the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) pipeline, Kogi State is central to the Presidential CNG Initiative (P-CNGI), which seeks to diversify the transport sector and mitigate the environmental menace of gas flaring. The research identifies a significant gap between federal policy goals and the local reality in the Kogi Central Senatorial District. While the socio-economic benefits of CNG including a potential 73% reduction in carbon emissions and substantially lower fueling costs are clear, widespread adoption is stalled by inadequate infrastructure. The study highlights that the scarcity of refueling stations, high upfront vehicle conversion costs, and a lack of technical expertise create a "barrier to entry" that restricts benefits to large-scale fleet operators while leaving average households and small businesses stranded. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach and anchored in the Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) theory, the study employs regression models to analyze how infrastructure, government support, and user demographics influence the success of this energy shift. The findings suggest that while the economic impacts of government policy are often immediate, the social and environmental gains depend on long-term investments in accessibility. Ultimately, the work concludes that for Kogi State to realize its potential as a model for sustainable energy, the government must move beyond policy rhetoric toward concrete investments in refueling networks, technician training, and financial incentives to lower the cost of conversion for the public.